Nigeria’s Collapse Behind the Scenes

 Africa has several pressing crises at the moment, most notably the year-long war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and the recent military coup in Sudan.  Although they draw much of the attention of the international community, there are other conflicts on the continent that are provided less consideration even though they are serious as well.  Then there is the devolving situation in Nigeria – Africa’s most populous nation – that is much more serious than in being realized.

American military strategists cited the danger of an unstable Nigeria in the 2011 report, Failed State 2030:

“Although not possessing nuclear weapons, Nigeria has the potential to dramatically affect the United States and the global economy if it fails. Africans are fond of saying: ‘As Nigeria goes, so goes Africa.’ Nigeria’s geographic and political position in Africa, its single-commodity and soon-to-be-top-20 oil-rich economy, extra-ordinarily complex demographics, culture of corruption, poor and failing national and human infrastructure, long history of dangerously destabilizing religious and ethnic violence, repeated and potential for future military coups d’état, endemic disease, and its growing importance to the global and US economy present researchers with a myriad of vexing and intractable problems and challenges,” the report stated.

I have been going to Nigeria for more than two decades, and it seems things never get better there – they just get worse in different ways.  On my last visit in 2017, there were several crises the government had to deal with, although only one got much national attention here in America.  The world is quite familiar with the Boko Haram insurgency.  What began as a small secessionist group in 2002 morphed into a major insurgent group, fighting not only troops from the Government of Nigeria, but also leading to the addition of troops from Benin, Niger and Cameroon.

Many remember the Chibok girls, more than 200 students at a school in northeastern Nigeria who were kidnaped by Boko Haram in 2014, which attempted to convert Christians to Islam and marry girls off to their soldiers.  Over the years, some were released and others escaped, but these girls were not the only children kidnapped by the group as many more were taken by this group over the years.  Boko Haram, and its offshoot Ansaru, were well-armed and seemed to have tactical expertise.  There were attempts to defeat Boko Haram, and despite declarations of victory on more than one occasion, the Boko Haram threat continued.  Efforts by some in government to achieve a truce failed in the face of opposition from within the government.  In one case described to us, a Boko Haram representative met with a government commission under a white flag of truce, but was later followed by security forces and killed along with others in an apparent attempted arrest.

In the last few years, Boko Haram affiliated itself with ISIS, the Middle Eastern terrorist group.  The Islamic State West Africa Province, based in the Lake Chad area, began moving weapons and personnel into the Sambisa Forest, the base of Boko Haram.  It seemed that the two groups would merge to form an even more powerful rebel force, but something has happened in that forest that was unexpected.  The Epoch Times reported in its August 18-24 issue this year that Boko Haram fighters were fleeing from their erstwhile rebel partners as hundreds of Boko Haram fighters began surrendering to the Nigerian military they had fought for more than a decade.

“Those surrendering are seeking safety with the government, fleeing the danger posed by the ascendant Islamic State of West Africa (ISWA) insurgency that defeated the Jamā’at Ahl al-Sunnah li-l-Da’awah wa al-Jihad (JAS) faction (commonly known as Boko Haram) in May, according to Otto,” the article stated, quoting David Oto, a UK-based consultant to the Nigerian army.

If Boko Haram soldiers found it necessary to flee from this new Islamic group, they must pose quite a formidable threat to Nigeria and the region.

Meanwhile, in Kaduna State, another Islamic group has struck fear among Nigerian Muslims in that area.  When my delegation spoke with Sunni elders in Kaduna, they expressed grave concern about the Shiite group known as the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN), a group believed to be trained and funded by Iran.  The group was described as strident and bullying.  In 2015, that bullying came into conflict with the movements of the Nigerian military in Zaria, resulting in a massacre. At least 348 civilians were killed, with 347 bodies reportedly secretly buried by the army in a mass grave.  IMN leader Sheikh Ibraheem Zakzaki was jailed on terrorism charges, but was acquitted and freed by a High Court ruling.

IMN surely has not forgotten its grudge against the Nigerian government, and with the longstanding Sunni-Shiite conflicts, there is little reason to believe this religious division will end peacefully.

To the Southeast, Ibo secessionists in the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), have been militating for the past several years for a restoration of Biafra.  From 1967-70, Ibos and related ethnic groups in the South wanted to break away from Nigeria’s central government.  Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the group is currently on trial for terrorism and treason, but his defense team is charging the Nigerian government with torture and denial of human rights.  Certainly, the Biafran war was a bloody affair that created justifiably harsh feelings subsequently.  In discussions with Ibo elders in 2017, it seemed that they had taught their children all too well about the animosity of northerners, which has continued to be evidenced through northern calls for Ibos to leave the North and actual attacks on Ibos.  As usual, the government has been harsh in its dealings with IPOB and other Ibo independence groups.

The old ethnic coalition that powered Biafra no longer exists.  In fact, ethnic elements in the South themselves want to secede from Nigeria’s central government.  A common complaint by many – from the Yorubas to the Ibos and ethnic groups in between – is that the Government of Nigeria favors Fulanis, the ethnic group of President Muhammadu Buhari, who has stacked government and government contractors with people from his own ethnic group.  Moreover, the so-called “Fulani herdsmen” have been in violent conflict with non-Fulani farmers in Nigeria’s Middle Belt for some time now.  Observers feel the President and other northern leaders support the well-armed Fulani combatants.

This issue, as well as a general mismanagement of the country’s economy, only serves to fuel desires to leave what must seem like a sinking ship.  Reuters has reported that Nigerian economic growth has resumed after the COVID shock but is lagging the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, with food inflation, heightened insecurity and stalled reforms slowing growth and increasing poverty, according to the World Bank.

That insecurity has grown over the years to such an extent that even those with security are reluctant to visit Nigeria or remain there.  A colleague told me that the Minister of Defense recently traveled with two AK-47 armed soldiers in his car on the way from Abuja to Kaduna and himself held an AK-47 on the ride.  Bandits are said to kidnap people for ransom and collect illegal tolls on roads across the country – all on an increasing basis.

The Nigerian publication This Day reported on a June 12^th incident made worse by police:

“From North to South and East, hundreds of people are being killed almost daily either by criminal cartels or lone wolves who seem to have overpowered the capacity of the state,” the article stated.  “The Nigerian state is itself providing leadership in all manner of bad behaviour that often leads to extra-judicial killings. With the wave of disenchantment by young citizens, fuelled largely by unemployment, alienation and general social and economic discontent, government ought to see peaceful protests as legitimate expressions of democratic rights. But as usual, the police yesterday betrayed a clear deficit of creative solutions to respond to civil protests without resorting to force.”

In the face of the mismanagement of the country by the current government and increasing instability, it is no wonder that secessionist talk has moved beyond IPOB and other Ibo groups.  In a July 26th article in the Nigerian publication The Guardian, entitled “The win-win dissolution of Nigeria”, author MC Asuzu lays out the rationale for secession:

“Obviously, if Nigeria’s political leaders refuse and continue to refuse to do the very things that they need to do for Nigeria to succeed in remaining one country dear to us all as they arrogantly are continuing to do, the next best thing is to have a win-win and most civilized dissolution of the country! To continue to go in the present ways of anarchy, of apparently arrogantly government-sponsored and protected (Janjaweedean) terrorism, and its ethnic cleansing for the bigoted, uneducated and retrogressive minority of the citizenry, will not only be clearly unacceptable to any reasoning person, but even to the devil himself!” the article proclaimed.

Perhaps the dissolution of Nigeria is inevitable, but that would send a big shock wave throughout Africa, however such a dissolution is achieved.  Eritrea’s secession from Ethiopia was congenial enough in the beginning, but devolved into conflict.  One wonders how the divided parts of Nigeria would coexist and what it would mean, not only for the people of Nigeria, but also other countries, such as Cameroon, where one segment of the population feels oppressed by a dominant segment of society.  The dissolution of Nigeria could be the thread that unravels the entirety of Africa.  On the other hand, it’s clear that a growing number of non-Northerners feel they have little to lose at this point.