The Evolving Political Game in Africa

 Politics is said to be a dirty business.  As someone who’s observed and been involved in international, national and local politics for decades, I can say that it is certainly a rough game in which parties and candidates often show no mercy – aiming not just to defeat a political opponent but also destroy their reputations and even their very lives.  In this era of social media run amok, you can start a campaign of lies and half-truths that can live on beyond an election.  We see this in today’s America and will see much more in this critical election year.

In Africa, it has been common for opposing political parties and candidates to be targeted by ruling parties and government officials.  Campaigns have been launched to discredit candidates, for example claiming they aren’t even citizens.  This was tried on Cote d’Ivoire’s Alassane Outtara and Angola’s Jose Eduardo Dos Santos.  It was tried here on the late Governor George Romney and former President Barack Obama.  The tactic ultimately did not work in any of these cases, but desperation drives candidates unsure of their appeal to voters to try anything to succeed.

In the case of Liberia, President George Weah has to be concerned about the downturn in his popularity and that of his government.  According to a survey done last year by Afrobarometer, the international polling company, more than 79 percent of those polled in Liberia say the country is going in the wrong direction.  Elected in 2017 and sworn in the following January, Weah came under fire for inciting violence on opposition candidates, including Telia Urey, daughter of politician Benoni Urey, in 2019.  Mass protests broke out that year against economic turmoil; protesters demanded the resignation of Weah and his government of due to the crisis.  Clearly, Liberian voters are still unhappy about Weah and his governance.

There have been other cases in which African governments have resorted to violence to quell protests and opposition candidates.  In Zimbabwe, the government security forces continued a campaign long crackdown on opposition activists, even less than three days after 2018 presidential elections won by Emmerson Mnangagwa, the leader of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front party.  In 2007, opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai had been so seriously beaten that he needed hospitalization, although he was more fortunate than some of his colleagues who were killed by police.

In 2005 in Ethiopia, protesters were killed in two post-election attacks by security forces, and tens of thousands of protesters and opposition candidates were jailed.  In fact, when then- African Subcommittee Chairman Chris Smith and I visited Ethiopia in August 2005, then-Prime Minister Meles Zenawi told us he had dossiers on all opposition leaders and could arrest them at any time, and evidently due to the surprisingly strong showing by the opposition in the elections that spring, he did just that.

This lesson of jailing opponents was copied by other ruling parties concerned that their popularity was not enough to guarantee reelection.  The latest to apparently use this tactic seems to be the Government of Liberia.  Alexander Cummings, leader of the Alternative National Congress (ANC), was arrested recently for alleged forgery and criminal conspiracy.  Cummings says he believes the leader of the All-Liberian Party (ALP), Benoni Urey, is being used by the government to cause division in the opposition bloc, by levelling what he described as "unfounded" allegations against him.

In order to defeat President Weah, the Unity Party of Ambassador Boakai, Cummings’ Alternative National Congress of Alexander Cummings, Urey’s All-Liberian Party of Urey and the Liberty Party of Senator Nyonblee Kangar Lawrence formed the Collaborating Political Parties (CPP) in 2020.  Now, Urey is indicating that he wants his party to withdraw from the coalition, and Cummings believes he is doing so to aid Weah.  Urey alleges that its leaders' signatures were "unlawfully attached" to what he said was an altered Framework Document of the CPP filed with the National Elections Commission (NEC) under Cummings’ chairmanship.

Cummings worked for the Coca-Cola Company for 19 years, retiring as Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer. He is Founder and Chairman of Cummings Investments Holdings, Ltd. and Chairman of the Cummings Africa Foundation.  He appears to be genuinely popular, and his financial success renders him more immune to corrupt dealings than his colleagues in the CPP.  So, if you were an unpopular president and perhaps a jealous political associate, getting Cummings out of the way, smearing his reputation for the present and future in the process, probably would look like a viable tactic.  In this case, violence would be counterproductive as it would make a martyr out of Cummings. 

However, tensions at Cummings’ court proceedings between his supporters and Urey’s left two female court officers badly injured and two male officers severely wounded.  Officers were trying to control the crowd that was forcing its way through the main entrance, but at that time, there weren’t many police officers present.  This is a bad sign for what could happen if the 2023 election campaign is tainted by manipulation or exacerbated by internal conflict within the opposition.

Cummings said the situation will not divide the CPP, which he pledged is determined to make Weah a one-term President.  However, I have seen political coalitions disintegrate in Africa before.

Internal political coalition conflict doomed the original Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) in Kenya in 1992.  I witnessed its disintegration up close as I had the benefit of knowing some of the key political operatives at the time.  In August 1991, six opposition leaders – Jaramogi Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Phillip Gachoka, Ahmed Bamahariz, Salim Ndamwe, Masinde Muliro and George Nthenge – established FORD to fight for change in the country. But President Daniel arap Moi outlawed the coalition, and its leaders were under constant surveillance by security agents and their meetings were outlawed. Intimidation only eased after sustained pressure from the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Scandinavian countries, as well as continued internal support by those pushing for multiparty democracy inside Kenya.

Unfortunately, in August 1992, due to an internal power struggle over the leadership of FORD, the party split into two factions: FORD-Asili, led by Kenneth Matiba, and FORD-Kenya, led by Odinga. The FORD split led to the reelection of Moi and his ruling Kenya African National Union, despite their deep unpopularity.  Moi won the 1992 election with less than 37 percent of the vote due to the two FORDs splitting more than 44 percent of the vote.

Subsequent efforts to form political coalitions in what became a violent 2007 election fell apart as well as leaders couldn’t agree on who would take the lead in any government that was elected.  As often happens, longtime politicians develop an entitlement mentality that prevents them from accepting that a political colleague is more popular and deserves the top spot more than they do.

If CPP’s leaders aren’t careful, internal jealousies and factionalism will cause history to be repeated and lead to the reelection of an unpopular president and ruling party.  As the saying goes: those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.