What is the Endgame for the Tigray War?

             As of this writing, the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region has been underway for 15 months with no clear end in sight.  Tens of thousands of people have been killed, abused, displaced or otherwise harmed by this conflict, which continually threatens to exceed its current boundaries and tear this East African nation completely apart.  Given the importance Ethiopia has played in modern African affairs, one would hope that the international community would devise a workable, enduring plan to end this conflict and usher in a sustainable political environment in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, but unfortunately that doesn’t seem to be at hand.

            The noted African intelligence newsletter Africa Confidential reported on January 21 that despite the release of political prisoners by the government of Ethiopia and a Tigrayan proposal for a ceasefire, peace talks are no nearer than before, even though military operations appeared to have slowed.  The Ethiopian government seems to have the upper hand currently due to air strikes that appear to have forced the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to agree to pull back to its home area to allow for negotiations to begin.  The Ethiopia government made a similar offer of a ceasefire fire when the TPLF forced its troops out of the strategic town of Mekelle. 

So long as here is no definitive victor in this war, the party looking not to lose will offer peace talks, while the aggressor presses its advantage.  As for the international community, it is roused to action whenever Addis Ababa, the capital where diplomatic missions reside, is threatened.  However, no lasting peace for Ethiopia or the region can be achieved with situational thinking.  The conflict in Ethiopia predates the November 2020 spark that ignited this warfare, and any sustainable resolution will require long-term, not short-term thinking.

Abyssinia, as the country we now know as Ethiopia was once known, was a feudal society that incorporated a number of ethnic groups, some large and many small under Amhara rule.  It went through a brief colonial period, then independence once again under the monarchy, then a Marxist period in which the monarchy was overthrown and then liberation from what was known as the Dergue government.  Throughout these changes, one ethnic group or another held power, resulting in perceived oppression and lasting resentment.

The largest ethnic group – the Oromo – never held power, not even under the current leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo.  This ethnic group and others have long felt their culture was subverted by Amhara dominance.  After the overthrow of the Dergue, the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front government was dominated by the TPLF, even though Tigrayans comprise less than 10 percent of the country’s population.  TPLF dominance ended under the current government, which set the Tigray elite to assure their continued power, also ostensibly in pursuit of protection of their minority ethnic group.

However, when considering who is to blame for any oppression, keep in mind that ethnic leaders comprise elites.  Even when the TPLF was calling the shots, that was Tigray elites, not the Tigray people generally.  Just as when the Amharas dominated government, it wasn’t all Amharas who benefited.  Of course, the language and culture suited them, but all Amharas didn’t materially benefit as some might imagine.  The average Ethiopian has long lived under governments in which the elite got wealthy and whoever was in control played divide-and-rule politics to keep the masses off balance and prevented popular uprisings – either through the ballot box or through violence.

Now we have a situation in which many Ethiopian expatriates support the government against the TPLF, which they consider oppressors in the past and don’t want to see back in power.  Some in this cohort revere Abiy as an Oromo who reconciled himself with Amhara elements. Meanwhile, an untold number of officials in the international community grew close to TPLF leaders when they rebelled against the Marxist Dergue and maintained their relationships once TPLF gained and wielded power.  They likely feel Abiy was undeserving of a Nobel Peace Prize and are inclined to see him as a hypocrite more guilty of war crimes than other parties in the conflict.  This makes for a situation in which there are seemingly irreconcilable sides that should be able to work together to seek a lasting, just peace in Ethiopia.  That can’t happen if the alleged war crimes are all blamed on one side or another.

Under Ethiopian federalism, each region is supposed to have a level of autonomy in which local culture and languages can flourish.  This hasn’t happened to date and will not be likely unless Ethiopians and their supporters take the long view and resist the temptation for revenge thinking.  Anuaks and Somali-Ethiopians, not to mention southern minority ethnic groups, have a lot of grudges they may want to settle, but they must keep in mind that their fellow citizens did not oppress them, the elites did.  Certainly, some groups did benefit by elite dominance, but if Ethiopia, Africa’s second largest population, is to exist as a unified country, then all Ethiopians must find a way to coexist, not just without actively fighting one another, but also learning to live together harmoniously, respectfully and cooperatively.

For that to happen, the international community must look beyond the elites, beyond their friends in government and the TPLF, to a more egalitarian vision of Ethiopia where all its people can practice their traditions, keep their languages alive and exercise local and regional power as befits their numbers in society.  The release of Tigrayan political prisoners is seen by some as having been forced on the Ethiopian government by the Biden Administration, and while there is truth in that assumption, it can be a sign to the Tigray people that they will not be the target of reprisals by other ethnic groups.  The average Tigrayan also has suffered, even before this current conflict.  Punishment that goes beyond those who initiated the conflict and are guilty of war crimes will only result in everlasting conflict.

But not only must the international community not promote punitive policies among ethnic groups generally, but they must support an indigenous effort to craft a constitution that works for all Ethiopians and does not Balkanize the country into settlements in which so-called others are not welcome.  There is now the opportunity to craft an Ethiopia in which people are not just members of their ethnic group, but also Ethiopians in a grander sense.  Perhaps a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, modeled and implemented as the South Africans did, can bring justice and resolution to the many grievances various ethnic groups still harbor so the country as a whole can move forward.

Additionally, elements in the Middle East, China and, most of all, Eritrea, must cease their efforts to take advantage of the Tigray war for their selfish interests, and these actors must end their enabling of this conflict while there is still a chance for a better Ethiopia to be built.  Eritrea in particular must be curbed because the Government of Eritrea fears the Tigray elite as a check on their regional ambitions and will continue to poison relations between average Tigray and average Eritreans in pursuit of combating their regional nemesis.  That has no benefit for Eritreans, Tigray or anyone else in the Horn of Africa.

There have been articles recently postulating that the United States is losing its influence in the Horn of Africa to China.  Very little is written about Middle East involvement in supporting this conflict.  Not enough is written or done about Eritrea’s malign influence in this conflict.

This must not become another superpower struggle for political and economic dominance in the region.  The Cold War played out to the detriment of the region, and a similar such struggle offers no better outcome.  Middle Eastern interests who support Eritrea’s ongoing intervention must not be allowed to continue in silence from the international community.  As for the Eritrean regime of Isaias Afwerki, it has proven to be a menace to the entire region, and, if unchecked, will be an enduring threat as it has been for quite some time regionally.

The world is at a crossroads vis-à-vis Ethiopia.  Good intentions are not enough.  Straightforward actions must be taken now in the interest of all the Ethiopian people and not for selfish national interests or to win a superpower competition.  Too many lives have been lost or ruined thus far.  A sustainable end to this longstanding conflict among Ethiopians, that has been abetted by outside actors, must finally be achieved.