Africa’s Complicated Relationship with Russia

 

            Russia has been involved with Africa for decades – militarily and economically.  The current crisis concerning Russia’s unprovoked invasion of neighboring Ukraine has revealed just how complicated Russia’s relationship with African countries really is.

            Observers were no doubt surprised to find so many Africans living in Ukraine when the Russians invaded.  In fact, almost 20% of the foreign students studying in Ukraine were African according to a 2020 count.  The African countries with the most students in Ukraine are Morocco (8,000), Nigeria (4,000) and Egypt (3,500).  Ghana’s government initially told its 1,000 students to shelter in place, while the Nigerian government said it would try to facilitate the evacuation of all its students who wanted to leave Ukraine.

             Unfortunately, foreign students attempting to leave the country say they are experiencing racist treatment by Ukrainian security forces and border officials.  One African medical student told CNN that she and other foreigners were ordered off the public transit bus at a checkpoint between Ukraine and Poland border.  They were told to stand aside as the bus drove off with only Ukrainian nationals on board, she said.  Rachel Onyegbule, a Nigerian first-year medical student in Lviv was left stranded at the border town of Shehyni, some 400 miles from Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

            Saakshi Ijantkar, a fourth-year medical student from India, told CNN that Ukrainian border officials used violence against foreigners trying to leave the country.  She recounted an incident she witnessed involving an African student being abused at the Ukrainian side of the Shehyni-Medyka border.

"I saw an Egyptian man standing at the front with his hands on the rails, and because of that one guard pushed him with so much force and the man hit the fence, which is covered in spikes, and he lost consciousness," she told CNN.

But outright discrimination and violence against Africans in Ukraine wasn’t the only negative outcome of Russia’s invasion.  Russia and Ukraine combined supply about 30% of the world’s wheat, and between embargoes, interrupted wheat production due to the conflict and broken supply chains, there is concern throughout African countries of higher bread prices.  Kenya, a major producer of tea, is concerned that financial sanctions could damage tea sales to Russia, one of the top five buyers of Kenyan tea – a major commodity for this East African nation.  Nevertheless, Kenya’s UN representative, Martin Kimani roundly condemned Russia’s invasion.

Indeed, it was the United Nations vote on resolutions condemning the Russian invasion and calling for a human rights investigation that illustrated this complicated Russia-Africa relationship.  The UN General Assembly voted 141 to 5 to condemn Russia’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine and affirmed that no territorial gains stemming from the use of force — or threatened use of force — would be recognized as legal there. Thirty-four countries, including China and India, abstained.  Among those abstentions were 17 African nations, and another eight didn’t vote at all. 

Angola, Mozambique (whose flag features a Russian Kalashnikov rifle), Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe have long considered the Soviet Union as an ally because of its aid in their fight to end white rule, and they consider Russia to be its successor.

The lone African nation that did vote in favor of Russia in both the UN General Assembly and the UN Human Rights Council was Eritrea.  The Eritrean Research Institute for Policy and Strategy (ERIPS), with whom I consult, believes there are four reasons why Eritrea is providing cover for Russia at the UN.

1.      The Government of Eritrea is one of the world’s most repressive governments with no legislature, no independent judiciary, and no independent media outlets. In 2016, the UNHRC found reasonable grounds to believe the Eritrean government has committed numerous crimes against humanity. In addition to abusing the human rights of its own citizens, the Eritrean regime also is  involved in the current Tigray conflict in Ethiopia, as well as past military confrontations with all its neighbors. Given the regime’s long history of systematic and widespread violations of human rights and a solid track record of attempting to resolve political issues by force, Eritrea voting in favor of Russian invasion and against the creation of a commission to investigate alleged Russian human rights violations in Ukraine should come as no surprise.

 

2.      By voting in favor of Russia, the Eritrean government hopes to secure access to sophisticated weaponry with which to continue and expand its destructive military confrontations in the Horn of Africa.  Russia is the largest supplier of military equipment to African countries, including such weapons as T-90SA main battle tanks (MBT’s), modernized BMPT-72 (Terminator 2) infantry fighting vehicles, Su-34 strike fighters and Su-35 air superiority jets. 

 

3.      The Eritrean government considers Western governments, especially the United States, as its archenemies for condemning the continued and egregious human rights abuses in Eritrea and for imposing sanctions on the country’s military, ruling party and some top party officials. The Eritrean regime also has a long-held resentment against the UNHRC for establishing a Commission of Inquiry to investigate systematic, widespread and gross violations of human rights in Eritrea.

 

4.      The Eritrean government voted in favor of Russia in hopes that Russia would use its veto power in the UN Security Council and in other venues to prevent any UN efforts to investigate Eritrea’s human rights violations or pass sanctions against it. Eritrea’s expectations of Russian reciprocity votes and support come at a time when Eritrea is being accused of extending its human rights abuses beyond its borders and into Ethiopia, and investigations are being called for alleged war crimes by Eritrea and other participants in the Tigray conflict. 

In fact, ERIPS believes Eritrea could actually become a depot for Russian military equipment in Africa

After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, it ramped up its efforts to trade with Africa, although it still accounts for just 2% of Africa’s trade in goods with the rest of the world. Most of Russia exports to Africa consist of armaments. Russia is now the largest source of arms to nations on the continent.  Additionally, the Russia-based mercenary organization – the Wagner Group – has become a popular source of military aid for African nations fighting against jihadist forces.

Still, there is a saying that in every cloud there is a silver lining, and there may be one in this invasion-created cloud. According to Patrick Smith, editor of the Africa Confidential newsletter, the ban on Russian energy exports could help oil- and gas-producing nations in Africa.

"Europe has to rapidly find alternatives to Russian gas, and the most reliable alternatives are in Africa,” Smith said. “It's a great opportunity for African states to move in and get new deals done quickly," he added.

The complication is that replacing Russian energy supplies with African sources would sour the Russian-African alliances.  Self-interest should drive many African suppliers to take this opportunity, but the question is: how will Russia regard such a development when this invasion-caused situation is resolved?

Russia is entangled with African nations and has been for quite some time.  Even if some want to detangle from the Russian bear, it won’t be that quick or easily done.  For example, South Africa has investments in Russia amounting to nearly $5 billion, while Russian investments in South Africa total around $1.52 billion.  Those African buyers of Russian arms will need resupply from Russia eventually.

We may see some sign of things to come later this year when Russia convenes its next Africa summit in Ethiopia later this year (depending on the security situation there at that time).  Will there be 43 African nations represented as there were at the previous Russia-Africa summit?  Time will tell.