Ukraine War Causes Hardships for Africa

             Many people not familiar with international affairs see situations as strictly black and white, villain and victim.  While there is much truth to such scenarios, as in Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine.  The impact of such a conflict usually involves more than just the combatants, and there are victims other than the country being attacked.  Such is the case with the Ukraine war.  Our world is so intertwined, that it is nearly impossible to take any significant action without there being collateral damage to those not involved in the original conflict or other actions that led to sanctions.

On February 24, the same day Russia invaded Ukraine, as had been speculated for weeks, the United Nations General Assembly held an emergency session that produced a resolution calling Russia’s invasion as an unlawful act of aggression “in violation of Article 2 (4) of the (United Nations) Charter,” demanding that Russia “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders.” There were 141 countries that voted in favor of the resolution, 35 voted against it and 35 abstained. Twenty African countries, out of Africa’s 54 nations, voted against the resolution.

Critics immediately jumped to the conclusion that this was evidence of “state capture”, a much-used Russian tactic in Africa in which that country seeks the allegiance of politically isolated leaders with whom to create alliances.  In the case of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, there is certainly truth to that.  Eritrea, a rogue, belligerent country in the Horn of Africa seeking Russian military equipment, voted in favor of Russia four times in recent United Nations votes.  However, this state capture view often neglects to take into consideration other factors that would lead an African government to attempt neutrality.

South Africa, a fellow member of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) alliance, reportedly hoped to use its ties with Russia to become a useful interlocutor to end the conflict with Ukraine.  Russia was undoubtedly surprised at South Africa’s strong initial opposition to its invasion of Ukraine because of the two countries’ economic ties.  South Africa has investments in Russia amounting to nearly 80bn South African rand ($5billion), while Russian investments in South Africa total around 23bn rand ($1.4 billion).

Of course, South Africa, like many other African countries has economic interests that are suffering as a result of the war and international sanctions on Russia.  The countries of the North American Treaty Alliance (NATO) quickly imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in an effort to cripple its ability to participate meaningfully in the global economy. These included exclusion from the Bank for International Settlements, including the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT), which facilitates cross-border money transfers messaging. 

Countries doing business with Russia now are crippled in their trade due to these limitations, as well as the reputational damage of being seen as a supporter of a rogue nation considered to be committing war crimes and atrocities in Ukraine.  For example, South African citrus farmers face millions of dollars in losses due to sanctions that have closed off the Russian market. South Africa is the world’s second largest citrus exporter, and farmers are scrambling to find other markets before the fruit spoils.  South African agricultural producers have had to weather two years of negative impact from the COVID pandemic, internal unrest and cyberattacks on the ports; the loss of the Russian market is another obstacle they must overcome.

According to an April 8 report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), the Ukraine conflict has caused “a massive, and deteriorating, food security challenge and disrupted livelihoods during the agricultural growing season in Ukraine and has also affected global food security.”  This disruption exacerbates a situation in which FAO estimates that international food prices have reached an all-time high. 

“This was mostly due to market conditions, but also high prices of energy, fertilizers and all other agricultural services. In February 2022, the FAO Food Price Index reached a new historical record, 21 percent above its level a year earlier, and 2.2 percent higher than its previous peak in February 2011,” stated the FAO report.

The results of the conflict are shortages of food supplies from Russia and Ukraine on one hand.  Russia and Ukraine are prominent players in global trade of food and agricultural products. In 2021, wheat exports by the Russian Federation and Ukraine accounted for about 30% of the global market.  Now Ukrainian farmers are busy battling Russia’s military rather than doing spring planting or exporting agricultural products. On the other hand, how do you buy agricultural products from an internationally sanctioned Russia?

In countries such as Sudan, where the political situation is dangerously tenuous, high bread prices could further stress the population and spark further government-public confrontations.  Successfully blaming inflation and supply shortages on Russia’s Vladimir Putin will be less successful there and other African countries than it is here in the United States, where it is not gaining traction among the public either.

Moreover, other ties some African countries have to Russia are suddenly in doubt.  Nearly half of African military equipment imports (49%) come from Russia. These include major arms (battle tanks, warships, fighter aircraft and combat helicopters) and small arms (pistols and assault rifles such as the new Kalashnikov AK-200 series rifle). According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the largest buyers of armaments from Russia are Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco and Uganda.  In fact, Egypt and Algeria are in the top ten list of major importers in the world. Egypt accounts for 5.8% of arms imports globally, while Algeria purchases 4.3%.  What now happens with shipments not-yet delivered arms and equipment or ammunition and spare parts yet to be supplied?  Presumably, such transactions would violate international sanctions and could trigger secondary sanctions on those purchasing countries.

Nevertheless, they say every cloud has a silver lining, and for African energy producers, especially natural gas, there are potential long-term benefits of replacing gas supplies to European buyers.  Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan said in an interview on the sidelines of the European Union (EU)-African Union (AU) summit in mid-February that the tensions in Ukraine were generating growing interest in her country’s gas reserves, which are the sixth-largest in Africa. Her predecessor, the late President John Magufuli, suspended talks with natural gas investors in 2019 to review the country’s production sharing agreement regime. Hassan, however, favors a more business-friendly approach and has revamped negotiations with energy companies in the hopes of attracting $30 billion in foreign investment to revive construction of offshore liquified natural gas projects in 2023.

Algeria, already a top African exporter of natural gas to Europe, has seen 98% of its foreign currency earnings come from gas exports.  Due to the current situation, European buyers are proposing to double their Algerian gas purchases.  Adding another nine billion cubic meters of gas exports could raise Algeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the current $145 billion to $200 billion.  The increased sales would make Algeria among Africa’s four leading GDP economies.

Of course, this works in the short term as a more favorable alternative for European buyers, but what happens when the Ukrainian conflict ends, presumably favorably, and Russia wants to get back to business as usual?  The Statista information service forecast in 2021 that the export volume of natural gas from Russia would increase by around 30 billion cubic meters compared to the previous year, when the exported volume of gas amounted to approximately 203 billion cubic meters. In 2024, Russian gas exports were projected to increase to 239 billion cubic meters.  Since natural gas exports play such a significant role in Russia’s economy, how will their relationship with African countries be impacted once they have become strong competitors for the European markets? 

Again, international affairs is a complex endeavor.  One action can cause multiple consequences other than the ones intended that may be positive or negative for countries not involved when there are international sanctions.  That won’t stop such sanctions from being levied when they are felt to be necessary, as in this case, but the incidental affects also must be calculated to see that the harm done does not exacerbate already problematic situations elsewhere, and precautions must be taken so as not to cause allies undue long-term suffering without being able to lend a hand where needed.