How Long Will Religious Disputes Plague Nigeria?

         I’ve written previously about Nigeria being the “essential nation” in Africa.  According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), successive U.S. Administrations have described the U.S. partnership with Nigeria as among the most important bilateral relationships on the continent: Nigeria is the United States’ second-largest trade partner and third-largest destination for U.S. foreign direct investment in Africa, and it routinely ranks among the top annual recipients of U.S. foreign assistance globally.  CRS estimates that Nigeria is poised to overtake the United States as the third most populous country in the world by 2050, with a population expected to exceed 400 million. Its population of 219 million is ethnically, linguistically and religiously diverse.

When I visited during President Bill Clinton’s visit there in August 2000, I suggested to several Nigerian officials and civil society representatives that the continent’s most populous country must use its natural and human resources to successfully compete with South Africa for primacy among African nations.  South Africa then had a problematic crime and labor situation and has since seen xenophobia increase greatly, along with violence, increasing its social and economic impediments.  Yet Nigeria seems destined to destruct itself over religious persecution and religiously inspired violence.  It is no mistake that Nigeria has been called the most dangerous place on Earth for Christians.

            Open Doors, a civil society group that monitors religious persecution, described the situation in Nigeria in dire terms.

“Persecution in Nigeria is, simply put, brutally violent. In much of northern Nigeria, Christians live their lives under the constant threat of attack from Boko Haram, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Fulani militants and criminals who kidnap and murder with few consequences. While all citizens of northern Nigeria are subject to threats and violence, Christians are often specifically targeted because of their faith — ISWAP and Boko Haram want to eliminate the Christian presence in Nigeria, and Muslim Fulani militants attack Christian villages specifically,” the organization writes. “In addition to the violence risks, Christians in some of Nigeria’s northern states also live under Shariah law, where they face discrimination and treatment as second-class citizens. Christians who convert from Islam also face rejection from their families, often pressured to recant their faith in Jesus; sometimes, they are even violently attacked.”

Unfortunately, this religious conflict in Nigeria is not new, but it is more driven in recent years by extremist elements than the Nigerian public generally.  A 2020 Afrobarometer survey found that a large majority of Nigerian respondents would be content or would not care if their neighbor practiced a religion other than their own. State discrimination along religious lines has periodically roiled interfaith relations, however.  Many Christians see job discrimination in government positions favoring Muslims, and Nigeria has seen growing violence along religious lines, particularly in religiously mixed zones of the north.

The country is divided between Christians and Muslims – the North is predominantly Muslim, while the South and East are predominantly Christian.  Muslims may not be universally trusted or liked in the South and East, but they are not hounded and killed as Christians have been in the North.  It must be noted, though, that Christians in Nigeria don’t consider converts as requiring punishment.  Decades ago, during the various cases of redrawing of Nigeria’s states, the Christian-Muslim animosity grew due to minorities becoming majorities overnight.  Moreover, both Muslims and Christians took opportunities to proselytize in their new communities despite the hard feelings it would surely create.  There could have been détente on this matter, but leadership among both groups declined to do the diplomacy necessary to make that happen, allowing the most extreme elements to lead the way on this with predictable results. 

Open Doors describes the continuing vulnerability for Christians across Nigeria.

“Remote villages in Nigeria’s Middle Belt region are at risk of attacks from Fulani militants or other violent actors, and these attacks have even spread into southern Nigeria. In the northeast, any community of believers is at risk of attack from Boko Haram or ISWAP. Because of the violence, thousands of Christians are forced to live in formal or informal camps for internally displaced people (IDPs). This situation contributes to the vulnerability, because people who have lost their home or loved ones are now effectively refugees within their own country. Women and girls tend to have higher levels of vulnerability as well — and anyone who converts from Islam to Christianity is likely most vulnerable of all,” the organization states.

According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), attacks on Christians in Nigeria are on the rise.  There already have been 23 separate attacks on church premises and people linked to them so far this year. For the whole of 2021 there were 31, and in 2020 there were 18.  Included among these attacks are:

• Two Catholic priests abducted in Katsina state on 25 May,
• Methodist Church leader Samuel Kanu Uche kidnapped in the south-east on 29 May and
• As many as 40 worshippers killed in a church in Ondo state in the south-west on 5 June.

         ACLED acknowledges that since it relies on local groups and media reports, many incidents may well go unrecorded. ACLED says the recent rise in incidents involving Christians also should be seen in the context of a general upturn in violence against all civilians - irrespective of their religious affiliation - in Nigeria since 2020.  Some attacks have been by Islamist groups such as Boko Haram against those Muslim communities seen as not observing their strict interpretation of Islam. Schools educating Muslim girls, for example, have been attacked and the children kidnapped. Muslim leaders who have spoken out against these militant groups also have been targeted.

During one of the Congressional delegation visits to Nigeria in which I participated, a Muslim leader in Jos told of the targeting by extremist elements against Muslims who didn’t observe their ideological line.  He said, “If you preach against them during Friday prayers, you will be targeted by Saturday.”

Muslim extremists seem to have heavily influenced Nigerian politics.  It has been a tradition in recent elections to have a Muslim and a Christian comprising the electoral ticket, such as the current administration of Muslim President Muhammadu Buhari and Christian Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.  Of course, there have been Muslim-Muslim tickets in the past, but in this period of rising attacks against Christians and Muslims who are considered like infidels by extremist elements, many Nigerian Christian leaders especially feel the selection of a Muslim Vice-Presidential candidate by Muslim All Progressives Congress party Presidential candidate Bola Tinubu sends a troubling message.  Of course, Tinubu likely is conceding to the reality that northerners are not accepting of Christians who could become president.  When President Buhari was abroad for extended medical treatment several years ago, Muslims in Parliament held up the budget, apparently so as not to give Osinbajo a political win.  They eventually relented – perhaps because of an appeal by President Buhari, but also because of the economic reality of governing for an extended period without approved funding.

At any rate, during my time working in the House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights and International Organizations, we held several hearings and conducted oversight visits to examine religious persecution in Nigeria.  We investigated the case of the kidnapping of the Chibok schoolgirls, who were forced to convert to Islam, and met with numerous Christians and Muslims attacked based on their religious beliefs.  We saw many people forcibly displaced and met with clerical leaders who told us of their houses of worship being targeted for attacks.  One man we met with – Habila Adamu – is a Christian whose village was raided by Muslim militants who demanded he convert to Islam.  When he refused, they shot him in the face.  Fortunately, he survived and testified before Congress about his experience.

CRFS recalls that in 2019, the Trump Administration placed Nigeria on a “Special Watch List” for religious freedom concerns under the International Religious Freedom Act. In 2020, it named Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) for “having engaged in or tolerated particularly severe violations of religious freedom.” Designation as a CPC can result in various punitive measures (e.g., aid cuts), subject to a waiver; President Trump waived any such measures for Nigeria, citing U.S. interests. The Biden Administration did not designate Nigeria as a CPC in 2021. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), an independent agency created by Congress, criticized Nigeria’s delisting, and they were not alone among organizations promoting religious freedom.  

Shortly before Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to Nigeria in 2019, the State Department made the CPC delisting, but gave no reason for the move other than saying Blinken, upon the advice of various department sections, decided Nigeria didn’t meet the legal threshold for the CPC designation. They denied the decision’s announcement was linked to Blinken’s trip but couldn’t fully explain the timeline.  Critics, however, called Blinken’s move political, designed to appease an important African partner. One former diplomat called it the “revenge of the bureaucracy” at the State Department. Others questioned how it fit with the Biden administration’s claim that human rights lie at the center of its foreign policy.

CRS reports that many analysts contend that religious ideology generally is not a primary driver of such conflicts, which appear to stem primarily from disputes over resource control pitting “Indigene” groups against “settler” Fulani – a result of the several redrawn state boundaries over the years as mentioned earlier. During one visit to Nigeria, I was told by an NGO group working in the country’s Middle Belt that herder and farmer youth were collaborating in cattle theft for profit, confirming the view that resources play a major role in conflict between herders and farmers.  Furthermore, vigilante mobs, or bandits not affiliated with any group, have stolen livestock or property.  There also are access to clean water issues in areas such as the Niger Delta region.

          Nonetheless, the violence for whatever reason has aggravated sectarian tensions and spurred killing along religious lines. The State Department reports that “Christian groups stated that Muslim Fulani herdsman were targeting Christian farmers because of their religion. Local Muslim and herder organizations said unaffiliated Fulani were the targets of Christian revenge killings.”  In the United States, we have the legend of the Hatfields and McCoys – two families whose feud spanned generations. It has become such a similar situation in parts of Nigeria, where killings of family members seem to require revenge killings of the attackers’ family members.  Where will it end?  This broadening violence not only threatens agriculture and mining, but also any other land-based commerce, as well as the general safety of people moving around the country or just living in whatever area they occupy.  How could this not affect the point of view of potential investors in Nigeria and limit the growth potential of Africa’s “essential nation”?

A new administration in Nigeria coming into office through the 2023 elections could either work to resolve this situation or make it worse.  The International Republican Institute and National Democratic Institute recently completed a pre-election assessment in Nigeria.  Their report stated:

“The 2023 elections are a departure from some of the political dynamics that defined previous polls. For the first time since 2007, the presidential election will be an open contest with no incumbent. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) selected former Lagos governor Bola Tinubu as its flag bearer. Former Vice President and 2019 presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar will contest on the ticket of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). However, the emergence of Peter Obi – former Anambra state governor and presidential candidate for the Labour Party (LP) – and Rabiu Kwankwaso – former Kano governor and presidential candidate for the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) – as viable “Third Forces” has excited many young Nigerians. If a third party draws sufficient support, a runoff presidential election could be a real possibility for the first time since the transition to democracy, adding complexity to the 2023 elections.”

It continues: “While there have been some positive changes since the 2019 elections, stakeholders with whom the delegation met expressed concerns about the direction of the country. Confidence in the government and elections has declined over the past 10 years, as exemplified by the #EndSARS movement that gained traction in 2020 to protest security forces abuses. In addition, insecurity has deepened, spreading to many parts of the country. Extremist and sectarian violence continues to spread, banditry and criminality are endemic, separatist elements are gaining traction, and informal security forces are proliferating. This intensifying violence takes place against a backdrop of increasing religious and regional division permeating the political discourse. If the 2023 polls fail to improve upon past elections, Nigerians may lose faith in the ability of democracy to deliver.”

The results of this next Nigerian election certainly are vital to the more than 200 million Nigerians, but also to the whole West African region, not to mention the continent.  How successful would the African Continental Free Trade Area be, for example, without a fully participating Nigeria?